Migrants living in the UK face an uncertain future as country votes to leave European Union

altNIGERIANS living in the UK now face an uncertain future after the country voted in favour of leaving the European Union (EU) by about 52% to 48% in a referendum yesterday that points to a xenophobic and insular future.

 

So far 377 of the 382 counting centres have declared their results by the leave campaign has taken an unassailable lead on a high turnout of 72%. Although certain strongholds like London, Scotland and Northern Ireland voted in favour of remaining in the EU, the overwhelming opposition to the community particularly in rural areas and the industrial northeast swing the vote in favour of the exit campaign.

 

This vote is certain to affect the UK's economy, immigration policy and lots more. With the exit campaign basing their argument on the need to control immigration and limit the number of EU migrants who come into the country, the UK is poised to become a more xenophobic country with possible tougher laws soon.

 

However, the process of leaving the EU will take years as the exit vote is not legally binding and there are a few ways it could theoretically be blocked or overturned. Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union establishes the procedures for a member state to withdraw from the EU, requiring that the member state provide notice of its withdrawal and then obliges the community to then try to negotiate a withdrawal agreement.

 

This exit vote does not represent that formal notification, which could take place within or British officials might wait a few months to pull the trigger. Once Britain invokes Article 50, it will have a two-year window in which to negotiate a new treaty to replace the terms of EU membership.

 

Britain and EU leaders would have to hash out issues like trade tariffs, migration and the regulation of everything from cars to agriculture. In the best-case scenario, the UK may be able to negotiate access to the European market that is not that different from what it has now.

 

For instance, Norway is not a member of the EU, but it has agreed to abide by a number of EU rules in exchange for favourable access to the European Common Market. British Prime Minister David Cameron did not want to hold a vote but in 2014, he faced growing pressure from the populist right over immigration and Britain’s EU membership.

 

To mollify dissenters in his own party and stop the rise of the far-right UK Independence Party, Mr Cameron promised to hold a referendum on leaving the EU if his Conservative Party won the 2015 election. The Conservatives surprised pollsters by winning an outright majority in Parliament and Mr Cameron kept his promise.

 

One of the most important and controversial achievements of the EU was the establishment of the principle of free movement among member states. A citizen of one EU country has an unfettered right to live and work anywhere in the community and both Britons and foreigners have taken advantage of this opportunity.

 

There currently are about 1.2m Britons living in other EU countries, while about 3m non-British EU nationals live in Britain. Thanks to EU rules, they were able to move across the English Channel with a minimum of paperwork but the UK's exit from the EU could change that profoundly.

 

It is possible that Britain could negotiate a new treaty with the EU that continues to allow free movement between the UK and the EU but resentment of EU immigrants fuelled the exit vote. At least, EU citizens moving to or from Britain would need to worry about passports and residency rules, which may also mean that some British immigrants may lose their right to continue living and working in the UK and be deported.

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